# Want to Compete with China? Deliver on Climate Security for the Indo-Pacific

- Link: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2021/05/want-to-compete-with-china-deliver-on-climate-security-for-the-indo-pacific/
- Published: 2021-05-21T15:30:00-04:00

### By Caroline Baxter and Erin Sikorsky

**_This article appeared in_ [Just Security ](https://www.justsecurity.org/76226/want-to-compete-with-china-deliver-on-climate-security-for-the-indo-pacific/)
_on May 21, 2021._**

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In its[ interim national security strategy](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf),
the Biden administration highlighted the need to “out-compete” China, and argued
deterring adversaries and defending U.S. interests will require a “robust” presence
in the Indo Pacific. If the administration is serious about competition, then it
must deliver on what matters to U.S. regional allies and partners: climate change
and climate security.

In a 2021[ survey of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members’](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-State-of-SEA-2021-v2.pdf)
greatest fears, the threat of climate change outranked the threat of military conflict
in the region by almost 10 points. For the Philippines, a crucial U.S. treaty ally
in the region, the gap was almost 20 points.[ Majorities in Japan](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/fact-sheet/public-views-about-science-in-japan/)
would rather protect the environment and manage climate change even at the expense
of economic growth, and a [recent survey](https://egfound.org/2021/05/modeling-democracy-democracy-in-disarray/#full-report)
by the Institute for Global Affairs found that the single biggest way American democracy
would be more attractive to Japan would be if the United States enacted climate 
change legislation. Public opinion surveys in[ Australia and South Korea](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/02/10/climate-change-still-seen-as-the-top-global-threat-but-cyberattacks-a-rising-concern/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2-10-19%20global%20threats&org=982&lvl=100&ite=3774&lea=873223&ctr=0&par=1&trk=),
two other major U.S. allies, have identified climate change as their greatest national
security threat. Meanwhile,[ in a 2020 Pew survey in the United States](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/13/americans-see-spread-of-disease-as-top-international-threat-along-with-terrorism-nuclear-weapons-cyberattacks/),
nearly the same percentage of Americans named China’s power and influence as a “
major threat” (62 percent) as named climate change (60 percent). 

The data speaks for itself. In 2020,[ the Red Cross responded to a record 25 climate-related disasters](https://reliefweb.int/report/world/red-cross-faces-record-number-climate-related-disasters-2020)
in the Indo-Pacific. A[ World Bank](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29461/GroundswellPN2.pdf?sequence=7&isAllowed=y)
study estimated that, without mitigation strategies, climate change will displace
40 million people in South Asia alone. Beyond the human tragedy, this is a significant
regional security risk: the steps that some countries have taken to avoid absorbing
climate migrants foment conflict. The[ wall](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/climate-induced-displacement-south-asias-clear-and-present-danger)
India erected to keep Bangladeshi climate migrants out of Indian territory has led
to[ deadly clashes](https://thediplomat.com/2017/02/the-india-bangladesh-wall-lessons-for-trump/).

The Biden administration appears to recognize these risks: Leaders from the Indo-
Pacific made up a quarter of the attendees of the[ U.S.-led Leaders Summit on Climate](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/26/president-biden-invites-40-world-leaders-to-leaders-summit-on-climate/)
in late April. The climate security panel led by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin 
featured the Japanese minister of defense and the secretary of finance for the Philippines.
In his remarks, the Japanese minister of defense, Nobuo Kishi,[ identified a range of climate security concerns](https://www.mod.go.jp/en/article/2021/04/a88c937c30be56316213265a47eaccf669dc8ff4.html#1)
for his country, including the strain on Japanese Self Defense Forces from increased
extreme weather events and climate-induced mass migration in the region. Now the
question is, how does the United States move climate security from the halls of 
diplomacy into the field? 

_Read more of Caroline’s and Erin’s article in _[Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/76226/want-to-compete-with-china-deliver-on-climate-security-for-the-indo-pacific/).

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## **Written by **Caroline Baxter

Caroline is a former research fellow with the Independent America project at the
Institute for Global Affairs.

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1916.jpg)

## Written by Erin Sikorsky

Erin is director of the Center for Climate and Security and the International Military
Council on Climate and Security

# Read more from Caroline