# Ukraine, Russia, and the United States

- Link: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-the-united-states/
- Published: 2022-03-29T01:12:00-04:00
- Author: Lucas Robinson

**Russia’s war in Ukraine is having—and will continue to have—profound geopolitical
consequences for Europe, the United States, and the world. IGA’s work, from our 
podcast to original commentary and analysis, is committed to making sense of the
war, its geopolitical ramifications, and America’s role in the conflict.**

[Podcast](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-the-united-states/#NOTA)
| [Commentary](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-the-united-states/#Commentary)
| [Video](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-the-united-states/#Video)
| [Modeling Democracy](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-the-united-states/#Modeling-Democracy)

---

**NONE OF THE ABOVE**

---

Released July 25, 2022

## The Crude Truth

#### Emma Ashford on the Global Energy Crisis

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/S4ep3_TheCrudeTruth_gradient-
1.png)

The fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the global energy market 
and hiked the price of fuel nearly everywhere around the world. In Europe, which
finds itself caught between [efforts](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/best-we-could-get-eu-bows-hungarian-demands-agree-russian-oil-ban-2022-05-31/)
to cut itself off from Russian oil and Moscow’s [firm grip](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/business/russia-gazprom-germany-gas.html?referringSource=articleShare)
on energy exports, the repercussions of today’s energy crisis are acute. While in
the United States, which experienced high prices at the pump, efforts have been 
underway to resolve the crisis. But how much control does the United States have,
and does it require the United States to lean on the shoulder of illiberal partners
like Saudi Arabia?

Often referred to as “black gold,” oil plays an important role in international 
affairs. Still, according to [Emma Ashford,](https://twitter.com/EmmaMAshford) an
oil and international relations expert, its role is frequently misunderstood. Emma
joins the Institute for Global Affairs’ [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/ProfessorHannah)
to discuss her new book [_Oil, the State, and War _](https://www.amazon.com/Oil-State-War-Policies-Petrostates-ebook/dp/B09RQ76RF5)
and complicate commonly held misconceptions on oil’s influence on foreign policy.
Mark and Emma also break down America’s efforts to address the energy crisis, green
energy’s potential impact on geopolitics, and the tangled web that is the global
energy market.

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-crude-truth-emma-ashford-on-the-global-energy-crisis/id1460825733?i=1000571228391)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/the-crude-truth-emma-ashford-on-the-global-energy-crisis)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!9cee1) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/the-crude-truth-emma-ashford)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/28hmxnmTyTaWbdjNtZYc7B) | [TuneIn](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!9cee1)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

Released July 5, 2022

## From Kosovo to Kyiv

#### Jamie Shea on NATO Then and Now

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/s4ep2_NATOgradient-2.png)

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created at the dawn of the Cold War to
stop the expansion of the Soviet Union. But in the 1990s, when NATO intervened in
the Balkan wars, it assumed a new role for itself. Our guest this week was responsible,
more than two decades ago, for explaining the NATO campaign in Kosovo to the international
press. Now as NATO member countries assist Ukraine in its defense against Russia,
can the alliance continue to provide security on the European continent? 

In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs’ [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/professorhannah?lang=en)
is joined by [Jamie Shea](https://socialsciences.exeter.ac.uk/politics/research/centres/strategy/members/jamieshea/),
a former NATO official who last served as Deputy Assistant Secretary General for
Emerging Security Challenges. As NATO unveiled its strategic concept last week in
Madrid, what lessons can the alliance learn from the past and what purpose will 
it serve in the future? 

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-kosovo-to-kyiv-jamie-shea-on-nato-then-and-now/id1460825733?i=1000568856584)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/from-kosovo-to-kyiv-jamie-shea-on-natos-past-present-and-future)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!db9d1) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/from-kosovo-to-kyiv-jamie-shea)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/118bmEtpa4RutElfKu3KEj) |  [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=173310237)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

Released May 5, 2022

## War Stories

#### Brooke Gladstone and Fred Kaplan on the Media, War, and Ukraine

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/War-crimes.png)

From the Crimean War of 1853 to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year, journalists,
reporters, and the media have shaped the public’s understanding of war. But do the
stories we read and the photos we see provide an impartial picture of the wars they
document? As the Institute for Global Affairs’ [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/EGFound)
recently explained in[ _Foreign Policy_](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/30/ukraine-war-media-coverage-hawkish-journalism/)_,
_certain aspects of American war coverage—reliance on government sources and incentives
to simplify geopolitics as battles between good and evil—have long compelled news
organizations to tilt toward military action.

In this special episode of _None Of The Above_, host of WNYC’s _On The Media_[ Brooke Gladstone](https://twitter.com/OTMBrooke)
and[ Slate’s “War Stories” columnist Fred Kaplan](https://twitter.com/fmkaplan),
are interviewed by Mark at the [American Academy in Rome](https://www.aarome.org/).
Together, in these excerpts from that conversation, they unpack the media’s coverage
of Russia’s war on Ukraine and the biases which influence how the media understand
and depict these conflicts.

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-stories-brooke-gladstone-and-fred-kaplan-on-the/id1460825733?i=1000559689229)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/war-stories-brooke-gladstone-and-fred-kaplan-on-the-media-war-and-ukraine)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!ff616) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/war-stories-brooke-gladstone)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2REZEzW4GOHrvvW5T1nB6S)  | [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=171873647)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

Released April 21, 2022

## Tactical Brutality

#### Max Fisher on the Russian Way of War

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/RussiaWar-gradient.png)

The Russian military withdrew from Bucha at the end of March, a suburb of Ukraine’s
capital, Kyiv. Soon after, photos and news stories revealed Russian atrocities, 
including the apparent intentional killing of civilians. This is sadly characteristic
of the Russian way of war in other conflicts beyond Ukraine. Some, including President
Biden, have accused Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine. But even if Putin’s
military is guilty of acts of genocide and war crimes, will it actually be held 
accountable? 

In this episode of None Of The Above, the Institute for Global Affairs’ [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/ProfessorHannah)
looks back at history with _New York Times_ columnist [Max Fisher](https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher)
to understand the roots of the Russian military’s targeting of civilians and past
efforts to bring war criminals to justice. Though prosecuting those in power is 
difficult, Max argues justice might come in other forms.

**Listen Here:** [Apple ](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/winter-in-ukraine-anatol-lieven-on-the-case-for/id1460825733?i=1000553477037)
[Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tactical-brutality-max-fisher-on-the-russian-way-of-war/id1460825733?i=1000558264973)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/tactical-brutality-max-fisher-on-the-russian-way-of-war)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!3a161) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/tactical-brutality-max-fisher)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/5v5al2Md9WUaCTZwPYAfU6)  |  [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=171499666)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

Released March 9, 2022

## **Winter in Ukraine**

#### **Anatol Lieven on the Case for Ukrainian Neutrality**

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/s3ep24Ukraine-1.png)

It is day fourteen of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Ukrainian resistance and Russian 
logistical issues have together denied Moscow a quick victory, but the fighting 
continues—and intensifies. Meanwhile, despite several rounds of diplomatic talks,
a peaceful settlement does not seem to be in sight. However, our guest this week,
Russia expert [Anatol Lieven](https://twitter.com/lievenanatol?lang=en), offers 
proposals that he thinks could end the war. 

Days before Ukrainian and Russian officials met for the third time for negotiations,
Anatol joined IGA’s [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/ProfessorHannah) to discuss
Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s and Russia’s interwoven history, and what a peace deal
might look like. As the costs of war mount, Anatol makes it clear that compromise,
though painful, is in the interest of both countries.

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/winter-in-ukraine-anatol-lieven-on-the-case-for/id1460825733?i=1000553477037)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/winter-in-ukraine-anatol-lieven-on-the-case-for-ukrainian-neutrality)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!f63b2) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/winter-in-ukraine-anatol)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/5ELY7oYxAHrTlsyKTA7AJB?si=uyV33mVxQiyKPQVctessKg)
| [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=170430066)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

Released February 22, 2022

## **Big Daddy Moscow **

#### Nataliya Gumenyuk** and Peter Pomerantsev Get Inside Putin’s Mind**

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/s3ep23_Putin_red.png)

**This episode contains explicit language. **On Monday, Russian President Vladimir
Putin ordered troops into eastern Ukraine. This follows months of tensions precipitated
by Russia’s mobilization of its military on the Ukrainian border. Putin’s order 
came shortly after a gruff speech in which he accused Ukraine of rejecting its historical
links to Russia and asserted the independence of two breakaway regions — the self-
declared People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. In the week before the Kremlin’s
orders, IGA’s [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/ProfessorHannah) spoke with journalists
[Nataliya Gumenyuk ](https://twitter.com/ngumenyuk)and [Peter Pomerantsev](https://twitter.com/peterpomeranzev),
who help us better understand the history behind today’s crisis, Ukraine’s perseverance
under the threat of invasion, and Putin’s seeming [obsession ](https://time.com/6140996/putin-ukraine-threats/)
with Ukraine.

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-daddy-moscow-nataliya-gumenyuk-and-peter/id1460825733?i=1000551906895)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/big-daddy-moscow-nataliya-gumenyuk-and-peter-pomeranstev-get-inside-putins-mind)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!ddd7b) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/big-daddy-moscow-nataliya?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ckdXgJiUMwNeiq3y8qWMb?si=qPWGUVKcROGPvGBZlhTDqQ)
| [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=170048025)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

Released January 25, 2022

## How to End the Ukraine Crisis

#### Thomas Graham and Rajan Menon on Negotiating with Russia

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/s3ep21_Blinken_red-2.png)

Eight years after it annexed Crimea and instigated a civil war in Eastern Ukraine,
Russia has mobilized 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. With the threat of
a Russian invasion looming, negotiations between Washington and Moscow are at an
impasse. Moscow’s demands, which call for a transformation of the US-backed security
order in Europe, were summarily dismissed by Washington. But according to our guests
this week, the authors of the recent[ _Politico_](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/10/how-to-get-what-we-want-from-putin-526859)_
_article, “How to Get What We Want From Putin,” there is still room for a diplomatic
resolution.

On this episode of _[None Of The Above](https://www.noneoftheabovepodcast.org/)_,
IGA’s [Mark Hannah](https://twitter.com/ProfessorHannah) is joined by [Thomas Graham](https://www.cfr.org/expert/thomas-graham)
and [Rajan Menon](https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_), who provide a roadmap for negotiation
which, combined with shrewd strategic thinking and skilled diplomacy, could not 
only quell the immediate crisis but lay the foundations for a more stable Europe.

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-end-the-ukraine-crisis-thomas-graham-and/id1460825733?i=1000548968507)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/how-to-end-the-ukraine-crisis-thomas-graham-and-rajan-menon-on-negotiating-with-russia)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!6e855) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/episode-12-moscow-meddling)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/16JWUvxZ9b7FDUC4uHnTgV?si=5fkcCO0TRc-obulFJbiRHg)
| [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=169298525)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

## **What in the **World… Negotiating with Russia

Thomas’s and Rajan’s roadmap for negotiation includes a moratorium on the eastward
expansion of NATO, which they argue could be a compromise that wouldn’t sacrifice
core American interests or principles.

---

Released September 14, 2021

## **Moscow Meddling**

#### **Terrell Jermaine Starr on Rightsizing the Russia Challenge**

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/s3e12_gradient_Joe_Biden_and_Vladimir_Putin_in_Geneva_16_June_2021_05-
4.png)

Since the end of World War II, policymakers have puzzled over the proper way to 
approach Russia. US-Russia relations have arguably deteriorated to their lowest 
point since the end of the Cold War as a myriad of issues strain the relationship.
From election interference to cyberattacks and Russia’s military expansion Westward,
is America’s response effective? Or, does the United States need to consider a new
approach? This week, Eurasia expert [Terrell Jermaine Starr](https://twitter.com/terrelljstarr)
joins us to discuss the future of US-Russia relations. According to Terrell, the
US strategy is hobbled by racism, groupthink, neoliberalism, and military primacy.
Terrell advocates for a more inclusive strategy that emphasizes diversity of thought
and securing domestic institutions at home.

**Listen Here:** [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moscow-meddling-rightsizing-the-russia-challenge/id1460825733?i=1000535323138)
| [Libsyn](https://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/episode-12-moscow-meddling)
| [Radio Public](https://radiopublic.com/none-of-the-above-60QLD7/s1!166f9) | [Soundcloud](https://soundcloud.com/noneoftheaboveegfpodcast/episode-12-moscow-meddling)
| [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2hQvlhdLOffEf1OUcnbAV9?si=MBd88wE_SDWzy0fca3tiQg)
| [TuneIn](https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/None-of-the-Above-p1219963/?topicId=165799351)
| [RSS](http://noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/libsyn)

---

**Commentary & Analysis**

---

Published October 24, 2022

## Americans Support Biden’s Response to the Ukraine War But Worry About Nuclear Escalation

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/) and Dina Smeltz

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/52265087814_c35d95d2fb_o-300x200.
jpg)

NATO and Russia will soon [conduct ](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/upcoming-russian-nuclear-exercises-a-challenge-for-the-west.html)
their annual nuclear exercises. These otherwise routine drills come at a perilous
moment. For the first time since the Cold War, an American president is tested by
a major power on how he might respond to a nuclear attack. Thus far, President Biden
has aided Ukraine (and pressured wealthy European allies to do likewise) while not
directly embroiling the U.S. in the war.

But many prominent voices in Washington urge him to do more. After two decades of
overly ambitious and unsuccessful military interventions, several serious foreign
policy pros yet again call on the U.S. to flex its muscle, to escalate America’s
involvement in this conflict. Some urge the U.S. to double down in the face of “
nuclear blackmail,” lest dictators be [emboldened](https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1581004273030086657)
and the chances for [nuclear war](https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1582004044557869056)
and proliferation increase. Others contend the U.S. should swiftly respond to a 
Russian nuclear attack with [conventional strikes ](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/12/military-force-putin-nuclear-threats-00061201)
or even tactical nuclear use [of its own](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/opinion/putin-nuclear-ukraine.html).

The president, however, seems more attentive to the risks of nuclear war. He recently
said he doesn’t think Putin is joking, and invoked the prospect of nuclear “Armageddon.”
Biden’s more cautious approach has earned him public support and were he to depart
from it and bow to the pressure emanating from hawkish enclaves inside the Beltway,
he could jeopardize that. This caveat stems from two new national surveys of Americans’
foreign policy views conducted by our organizations, the [Chicago Council on Global Affairs](https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research?research_type%5B0%5D=22&date=)
and the [Institute for Global Affairs](https://egfound.org/2022/10/rethinking-american-strength/#full-report).

Survey results show substantially more Americans think the Biden administration 
[responded well](https://egfound.org/2022/10/rethinking-american-strength/#Ukraine)
to Russia’s invasion than think it did not. The top reason given is how the U.S.
strengthened the Ukrainian resistance through military aid. However, the fact that
the U.S. avoided a direct confrontation with Russia or that it encouraged NATO to
strengthen Europe’s self-defense capability were, together, cited about as frequently.
In other words, many support the president’s response because it’s not doing too
much, not because it’s doing enough.

Read more of Mark’s article in _[Time](https://time.com/6224376/public-supports-bidens-response-to-the-ukraine-war-nuclear-escalation/)_.

---

Published August 8, 2022

## The West Can’t Afford to Be Dependent on Petrostates

#### The United States and Europe should focus foremost on achieving energy independence and disentangling themselves from the values and interests of Riyadh and Moscow.

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/), Senior Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/48755614528_7c111f9521_o-1-1024x683.
jpg)

Europe sweats under [record-high](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/world/europe/europe-uk-heat-record-wildfires.html#:~:text=At%20Heathrow%20Airport%2C%20the%20mercury,40.3%20degrees%2C%20or%20104.5%20Fahrenheit.)
summer temperatures as it simultaneously braces for the cold months coming. Last
week, the Russian gas company Gazprom [announced](https://www.politico.eu/article/gazprom-nord-stream-flows-to-halve-beginning-wednesday/?utm_source=Eurasia+Group+Signal&utm_campaign=6e8e13b83a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_26_10_43&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e605619869-6e8e13b83a-170143561)
a drastic cut—down to about 20 percent of capacity—in the flow of gas through the
pipeline which supplies Germany. This could make for a catastrophic winter. One 
recent [report](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-gas-heat-germany-ukraine-energy-nord-stream-deustche-bank-2022-7)
grimly explored how Germans might revert to heating their homes with wood.

In the United States, the situation is less severe, though Americans certainly feel
the pinch of high energy prices. Polls show voters worry about the [rising cost of living](https://americanstaffing.net/posts/2022/07/20/workers-say-their-paycheck-is-not-enough/),
and especially [driving](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/02/us/energy-environment-gas-prices-gallup-poll-climate/index.html)
costs. So, President Joe Biden reversed his campaign position to make Saudi Arabia
a “[pariah](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pariah-no-more-biden-stands-saudi-visit-op-ed-203520)”
and gave the kingdom’s crown prince a fist-bump and a boost to his status.

How did we end up here?

In 1938, an American company in Saudi Arabia [struck oil](https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/oil-discovered-saudi-arabia).
As the world industrialized, the kingdom swiftly became a leading oil producer and
remains central to the world energy market today, with extraordinary leverage over
its security provider, the United States. But Riyadh is not alone in its ability
to bend the will of powerful states. Every “superproducer,” [including Russia](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/sanctions-are-hurting-west-more-russia-203784),
is able to exert pressure and resist otherwise strong countries.

Most American and European consumers don’t wish to bankroll autocratic regimes, 
but their leaders often leave them no choice. Policy decisions in Washington and
European capitals have led to this moment. But it’s not just the lack of political
will and ingenuity to pivot to more renewable sources of energy: though loath to
admit it, Washington has a baffling “need to be needed” by oil-rich countries. And
by brokering power struggles in the Persian Gulf, where it otherwise has no compelling
interest, Washington gains an excuse to play “globocop.”

Read more of Mark’s article in _[The National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/west-can%E2%80%99t-afford-be-dependent-petrostates-204052)_.

Published July 31, 2022

---

## Nuclear Risks: Russia’s Ukraine War Could End in Disaster

#### The Russo-Ukrainian War could yet go nuclear, and expanding war aims could push Russia over the brink.

By [Giles David Arceneaux](https://egfound.org/by-author/giles-david-arceneaux/)
and [Rachel Tecott](https://egfound.org/by-author/rachel-tecott/), Nonresident Fellows

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/29777709056_93382e8bb5_o-1-1024x512.
jpg)

As the Russo-Ukrainian War grinds on, both Russia and Ukraine have adjusted their
strategic objectives. Russia abandoned its initial goal of seizing Kyiv and installing
a pro-Russian government after facing fierce Ukrainian resistance, and is now focusing
on [conquering Eastern Ukraine](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/ukraine-war-east-russia.html)
and [annexing](https://www.axios.com/2022/07/19/putin-russia-annex-ukraine-kherson-donetsk-luhansk)
significant portions of Ukraine’s southern territory. Ukraine’s minimum objectives
include reestablishing its [prewar borders](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-rejects-concessions-russians-attack-east-2022-05-22/),
with political leaders occasionally suggesting that Ukraine should expand its ambitions
to [reclaiming territory](https://www.ft.com/content/8db0d387-fb41-4142-b78f-6619d36d8be0)
lost to Russia in Crimea and the Donbas region since 2014.

US strategic objectives in Ukraine are also a [moving target](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukrainian-war-and-american-decisions-203821?page=0%2C1).
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin [stated](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/)
that the United States not only wants Ukraine to remain a sovereign and democratic
country, but also “to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds
of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi
promised that the United States would support Ukraine “[until the fight is done](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-congress-adam-schiff-b26d709f1e5e3cba71c3b67e47638746).”
President Joe Biden [reiterated this point](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/06/30/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-madrid-spain/),
stating that the United States would support Ukraine for “as long as it takes so
Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.”

Analysts and commentators debate [how ambitious](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-needs-solutions-not-endless-war-203858)
U.S. support for Ukraine should be. Some scholars have emphasized [differences in U.S. and Ukrainian interests](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-nato-eu-us-alliance-solidarity/)
and encouraged [more limited objectives](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/05/11/ukraine-war-expansion-risks-nuclear/).
Calls for continued and [expanded](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/11/help-ukraine-win-war-russia-weapons-himars/)
military support have come to dominate the defense policy discourse.

A core point of disagreement between these two camps is the [perceived likelihood](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/escalation-ukraine-inevitable-203835)
of nuclear escalation. Whereas those arguing for limited objectives tend to worry
about the [potential for escalation](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/05/11/ukraine-war-expansion-risks-nuclear/)
across the nuclear threshold, analysts in favor of increased support for Ukraine
view the costs of concessions as [more dangerous than confrontation](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-expanding-its-goals-ukraine-and-%E2%80%99s-very-good-thing-203301)
and tend to view the [likelihood of escalation as minimal](https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1542512417774530567).

Read more of Giles’s and Rachel’s article in _[The National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/nuclear-risks-russia%E2%80%99s-ukraine-war-could-end-disaster-203889)_.

---

Published July 18, 2022

## It’s time for a US push to end the war in Ukraine

#### With a long, bloody stalemate on the horizon, the conflict’s negative ripple effects worldwide will continue to mount.

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/), Senior Fellow

![](http://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/pexels-алесь-усцінаў-11477798-
1024x721.jpg)

Two months after Ukrainians impressively repelled Russia’s attack on Kyiv, the war
is taking a different course.

Russian troops are consolidating their gains in Donbas as up to 1,000 Ukrainian 
fighters are [killed or wounded](https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia)
daily. This puts the war on track to be [among the bloodiest](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/23/ukraine-war-deaths-soldiers-history/)
in modern history. Despite the delivery of heavy weaponry from the West, Ukraine
is outmatched by [Russian artillery](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/27/russia-cauldron-tactic-may-tipping-donbas-battle-favour)—
for each shell or rocket fired by Ukraine, Russia fires [about ten](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-ammo-shortage-artillery.html).
The war has been difficult to predict, but time is not on Ukraine’s side.

So the time for aggressive diplomacy in Ukraine is now, and the recent G7 and NATO
summits, and the G20 foreign ministers meetings last week, were colossal missed 
opportunities to restart the peace process. Rather than strategizing about how to
extract the best terms from a Russia that [appears ready](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/russian-ambassador-ukraine-lunch-00042228)
to negotiate, leaders of the most powerful democracies have worked to “[starve](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/politics/joe-biden-g7-summit-day-two-volodymyr-zelensky/index.html)”
Russia of oil money and further “[weaken](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/28/g7-summit-talks-russia-war-ukraine)”
the Russian military, and even resorted to [schoolyard taunts](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/26/trudeau-johnson-g7-putin-pecs-shirtless/)
to Putin. This during a moment when we most need the adults in the room to help 
de-escalate the conflict.

There is still time — and leverage — to achieve a diplomatic settlement, after all.
The United States could make clear that, while it supports Ukraine’s fight, it has
different stakes. Washington has a definite interest in curbing Russian aggression
in Europe but it’s not as invested in restoring Ukraine’s pre-invasion borders as,
well — Ukraine is. Kyiv has nothing to lose (and potentially a lot to gain) if the
war escalates into a wider confrontation between NATO and Russia. But NATO countries,
including the United States, would have a lot to lose — especially if this escalation
turns nuclear. 

Read more of Mark’s article in [_Responsible Statecraft_](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/07/18/its-time-for-a-us-push-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine/).

---

Published April 12, 2022

## US should invest in relationships, not more guns

#### Amid the war in Ukraine, Europe has shown more willingness to provide for its own defense and the Biden team should encourage it.

By [Zuri Linetsky](https://egfound.org/about/team/zuri-linetsky/), Research Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/10725791445_2d85154548_o-1024x678.
jpg)

President Biden plans to increase defense spending by [four percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/28/us/politics/biden-budget.html)
annually through [2025](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/28/biden-requests-largest-defense-budget-00020859),
following a similar increase [last year](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/16/us-military-spending-grows-as-policy-shifts-to-prioritise-china)
will not help the United States confront Russia or [compete with China](https://media.defense.gov/2022/Mar/28/2002964702/-1/-1/1/NDS-FACT-SHEET.PDF),
and it may hurt the American economy.

Instead of spending more on the military, the Biden administration should empower
allies and partners in achieving our common security objectives.

The Pentagon [budget](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/28/bidens-new-pentagon-budget-request-is-too-damn-high/)
is already rife with waste, as four years of failed [independent](https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/997961646/the-pentagon-has-never-passed-an-audit-some-senators-want-to-change-that)
[audits](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/why-the-pentagon-failed-another-audit.html)
indicate. And despite claims from those who promote defense spending as a jobs creator,
[data shows](https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/economic/economy/employment)
that $1 billion spent in health care, education, or clean energy [creates](https://peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/published_study/spending_priorities_PERI.pdf)
thousands more jobs than $1 billion spent on defense.

Defense spending also diminishes economic [growth](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-2.html)
and undermines the American [economy](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/056943459303700212)
by adding to the deficit, which then contributes to rising interest rates (which
are further increased by ongoing [inflation](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/16/business/fed-meeting-interest-rates)).
According to a recent Gallup [survey](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1666/military-national-defense.aspx),
42 percent of Americans have already rated the current economic conditions of the
United States “[poor](https://news.gallup.com/poll/390350/satisfaction-low-economic-concerns-remain-high.aspx).”
Needlessly throwing more money at the Pentagon will only serve to further undermine
those [views](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1666/military-national-defense.aspx).

Read more of Zuri’s article in _[Responsible Statecraft](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/04/12/us-should-invest-in-relationships-not-more-guns/)_.

---

Published March 30, 2022

## Why Is the Wartime Press Corps So Hawkish?

#### The United States’ most reputable media outlets have a long history of tilting toward military action.

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/), Senior Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/52068485496_415f8827c3_o-1024x683.
jpg)

Armed conflict has a way of bringing out both the best and the worst in U.S. journalism.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, war correspondents have courageously delivered battlefield
news reports that lay bare Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutality. Yet many
journalists and commentators—most of whom live comfortably removed from the front
lines—have lately been calling on the United States to escalate its involvement 
in dangerous ways. Leading national security journalists have openly suggested that
the U.S. military simply [bomb](https://twitter.com/richardengel/status/1498381591306981379?s=21)
Russian convoys or enact a [no-fly zone](https://twitter.com/EliLake/status/1499775768410398721)
over Ukraine, which would require shooting down Russian planes. The White House 
press corps has [barraged](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjnzKrvPkiw) the White
House press secretary with questions, practically goading the president to intervene.
Some frame the war as a matter of existential importance for U.S. security, comparing
failure to intervene with [appeasing](https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1502351199869276163?s=21)
former Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler.

These calls for the United States to join the fight seem especially shocking and
glib, considering the serious dangers of conflict between two nuclear-armed powers.
As the Atlantic Council’s [Damir Marusic](https://wisdomofcrowds.live/the-ugly-truth-about-no-fly-zones/)
explains, even minor skirmishes can escalate to nuclear exchanges terrifyingly fast.
Given these risks, U.S. President Joe Biden has been understandably cautious—a trait
that doesn’t always play well in a polarized news culture. Fox News invited a Ukrainian
official to characterize the president making the no-fly zone decision as “[afraid](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/zelenskyy-former-aide-lack-of-no-fly-zone-us-nato-afraid-of-putin)”
and a Republican senator to call it “[heartless](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rick-scott-america-stop-bloodshed-ukraine).”
The _Wall Street Journal_ [editorial board](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-can-win-with-enough-help-biden-nato-jake-sullivan-putin-russia-zelensky-11648072921)
thinks Putin has “succeeded in intimidating Mr. Biden” with the threat of nuclear
escalation. Meanwhile, the American people are not fully informed on the details
or likely consequences of such an action. Polling finds Americans supportive of 
a no-fly zone at first glance, with support for the idea [dropping like a rock](https://news.yahoo.com/poll-americans-warm-to-bidens-approach-on-russia-and-ukraine-125641393.html)
once pollsters explain it would almost certainly result in an honest-to-goodness
shooting war with Russia.

In times of war, the United States’ most reputable journalists and media outlets
have a long history of tilting toward military action. Just last year, mainstream
news outlets subjected the Biden administration to a [torrent](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/afghanistan_taliban_saigon_media.php)
of [criticism](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/how-the-media-botched-bidens-afghanistan-withdrawal.html)
over the [widely popular](https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/354182/american-public-opinion-afghanistan-situation.aspx)
decision to withdraw from Afghanistan—a [wise move](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/04/15/the-us-decision-to-withdraw-from-afghanistan-is-the-right-one/)
given two decades of failure to create a stable Afghan democracy and the need to
[rebalance](https://harvardpolitics.com/painful-pivot-to-asia/) U.S. military capabilities
toward competition in Asia. Although coverage of the Trump presidency was broadly
negative, then-U.S. President Donald Trump received fawning [praise](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/327779-cnn-host-donald-trump-became-president-last-night)
after he launched a strategically pointless [missile strike](https://www.cfr.org/article/missile-strikes-are-not-syria-strategy)
on Syria in 2017.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama received [wide support](https://surface.syr.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1033&context=exchange)
in the media for his decision to establish a no-fly zone during the First Libyan
Civil War (which he would remember as the “[worst mistake](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/12/barack-obama-says-libya-was-worst-mistake-of-his-presidency)”
of his presidency), and attracted significant [criticism](https://www.amacad.org/publication/syria-cnn-effect-media-policy-making)
for subsequently avoiding intervention in Syria (likely informed by the [disastrous consequences](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2019-02-18/obamas-libya-debacle)
of the Libya intervention). And who can forget news outlets across the political
spectrum that [failed](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10584600903502615)
to [challenge](https://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/26/world/from-the-editors-the-times-and-iraq.html)
the George W. Bush administration’s shaky justifications for the Iraq War? One [study](https://fair.org/extra/amplifying-officials-squelching-dissent/)
found that over a three week period prior to the invasion, 64 percent of guests 
appearing on network and cable news programs supported the war, whereas only 10 
percent were opposed.

Read more of Mark’s article in_ _[_Foreign_](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/russia-s-ukraine-war-foreshadowed-biden-nato-speech-ncna1292539)_
[ Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/30/ukraine-war-media-coverage-hawkish-journalism/)_.

---

Published March 22, 2022

## How Biden’s 2009 speech on NATO solidarity foreshadowed the Ukraine-Russia crisis

#### Biden addressed critics who thought the US was no longer focused on central and Eastern Europe. But he didn’t exactly deny the criticism.

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/), Senior Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/RTXPW70-2-1024x691.jpg)

In 2009, about a year into his [vice presidency, Joe Biden](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/how-barack-obama-s-eight-years-shaped-joe-biden-s-n1264870)
was in Romania, [giving a speech ](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/vice-president-biden-in-central-europe)
about the importance of NATO solidarity. I was there with him, as a young advance
guy paying more attention to Biden’s punctuality and the order of European flags
on the stage than to the speech’s strange geopolitical moment.

At the time, hardly anyone was preoccupied with the possibility of[ Russia’s invading a European country](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/world-war-iii-may-already-started-russian-invasion-zelenskyy-says-rcna19967).
In the decades after the Cold War, much of central and Eastern Europe was growing
more prosperous and democratic. So as Biden spoke — and as his speech was simultaneously
translated into 15 languages from across the region, including Ukrainian — his primary
preoccupation was to rally his audience to America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There’s been a lot of news lately about [NATO’s Article 5](https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/russia-s-ukraine-invasion-may-have-been-preventable-n1290831)—
the provision that compels each member country to respond to an attack on an ally
as though it had been attacked itself. In the treaty’s 70-year history, however,
the article has been invoked [only once](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/natos-article-5-collective-defense-obligations-explained):
after the 9/11 attacks on the U.S. In retrospect, as an analyst of U.S. foreign 
policy who has come to understand NATO as effectively a vehicle through which the
U.S. guarantees European security, it was surreal to watch the vice president of
the world’s strongest country thanking Romanians and Poles and Czechs for their 
service in these Middle East wars.

In that 2009 speech, Biden addressed critics who thought the U.S. was no longer 
focused on central and Eastern Europe. But he didn’t exactly deny the criticism.“
It’s precisely because of our global responsibilities and your growing capacity 
and willingness to meet them with us that we value our partnership,” he told the
assembled diplomats and officials from across the region. In other words, the U.
S. valued this region for its support in our wars — but mostly took its stability
for granted.

Read more of Mark’s article in_ _[_NBC News THINK_](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/russia-s-ukraine-war-foreshadowed-biden-nato-speech-ncna1292539).

---

Published March 14, 2022

## **US aid to Ukraine**

#### **$13.6 billion approved following Russian bombardment marks sharp increase**

By[ Jessica Trisko Darden](https://egfound.org/by-author/jessica-trisko-darden/),
Nonresident Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/RTS5CWHQ-1-1024x683.jpg)

### How much aid has Congress approved?

President Joe Biden signed off on an emergency spending package that included [US$13.6 billion in aid for Ukraine](https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Ukraine%20Supplemental%20Summary.pdf)
on March 11, 2022. Roughly half the money, [approved by Congress](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/09/1085509937/house-advances-13-6-billion-in-ukraine-aid-along-with-government-funding)
over the prior two days, is for military purposes. It includes $3.65 billion for
[weapons transfers and sales](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/03/09/bidens-ukraine-aid-package-is-getting-super-sized-by-congress/)
to Ukraine and another $3 billion to support more U.S. troops in Europe.

A portion of the funds will support economic warfare against Russia, including efforts
to seize the assets of [Russian oligarchs](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/03/12/russian-oligarch-yachts/),
but most of the economic aid will pay for humanitarian relief and disaster assistance.
That includes helping refugees and aiding [people displaced within Ukraine](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-aid-spending-bill-congress/index.html).

### What else is the US doing?

The total amount of aid the U.S. is providing Ukraine exceeds the $13.6 billion 
in the spending package. On March 12, just one day after Biden signed the spending
package, the [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/03/12/memorandum-on-the-delegation-of-authority-under-section-506a1-of-the-foreign-assistance-act-of-1961/)
announced [another $200 million](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-authorizes-200-mln-new-weapons-military-training-ukraine-2022-03-12/)
in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. It includes small arms and anti-tank
and anti-aircraft weapons from U.S. defense stocks.

On the ground, the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, is partnering
with United Nations agencies to position [critical relief supplies](https://medium.com/usaid-2030/four-ways-usaid-is-responding-to-the-crisis-in-ukraine-e4a459b6b8fc)
throughout Ukraine, including emergency food, surgery and medical kits, thermal 
blankets and sanitation supplies. Since Russia invaded, USAID has provided $107 
million in humanitarian aid.

By the time Russia attacked on [Feb. 24](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/02/ukraine-russia-war-timeline-photos-videos-maps/),
Ukraine had already received most of the weapons from a [$200 million military assistance package](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-receives-second-batch-us-weapons-russian-stand-off-2022-01-23/)
announced in December 2021.

Immediately after the invasion, Biden announced an additional [$350 million](https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-approves-350-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-02-26/)
in U.S. weapons. That was on top of the U.S.-provided Stinger anti-aircraft weapons
and Javelin missile systems being transferred, with American authorization, from
[Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-clears-baltic-states-send-us-made-weapons-ukraine-2022-01-20/)
to Ukraine.

And the U.S. has [reportedly redirected](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stinger-deliveries-to-ukraine-followed-long-search-for-technical-fix-11646773886)
[Mi-17 helicopters](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040) originally
intended for Afghanistan.

Read more of Jessica’s article in [_The Conversation_](https://theconversation.com/us-aid-to-ukraine-13-6-billion-approved-following-russian-bombardment-marks-sharp-increase-179172).

---

Published March 11, 2022

## In Ukraine and other conflicts, measuring the human cost is important. It’s also very difficult.

#### The battle over casualties in the Ukraine war is just beginning

By [Jessica Trisko Darden](https://egfound.org/by-author/jessica-trisko-darden/),
Nonresident Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/RTS6GMB5-1-1024x736.jpg)

Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s first lady, [claimed this week](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vidkritij-list-oleni-zelenskoyi-do-predstavnikiv-svitovih-zm-73437)
that Russian forces were engaged in “the mass murder of Ukrainian civilians.” In
her [open letter](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/ukraine-first-lady-olena-zelenska-letter/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2)
to the media, Zelenska focused on child casualties of the war, some of whom[ died](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/07/named-ukrainians-killed-since-russia-invaded)
as a result of Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities.

Zelenska argued that Ukrainian civilian casualties proved that Russia’s narrative
of a military operation launched to save civilians from “[genocide](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/world/europe/putin-ukraine-genocide.html)”
was false.

The competing claims being made by Ukraine and Russia about the war’s casualties
don’t end there. [Casualty estimates](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/10/ukraine-casualties-deaths-military-civilian-russian-invasion/?itid=lk_inline_manual_5)
have varied widely since the war began about two weeks ago. The government of Ukraine
claims that [at least 11,000 Russian soldiers](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-over-11000-russian-troops-killed-war-2022-03-06/)
have been killed in the war. Russia has admitted that [498 Russian troops have died and 1,597 more have been injured](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/02/1083968591/russia-ukraine-deaths-war).
The United States also weighed in, estimating that [between 2,000 and 4,000 ](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/08/russian-military-deaths-ukraine/?itid=lk_inline_manual_5)
Russian military personnel may have been killed. For its part, Ukraine has not reported
any military casualties, despite international media coverage of [soldiers’ funerals](https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/03/09/1085272232/hundreds-gather-to-honor-fallen-ukrainian-soldiers).

In any conflict, the outside world relies on the participants — both victims and
perpetrators — to report casualties. Both have reasons to distort those numbers 
to support their view of events. And it is practically impossible to tell whose 
numbers are accurate. Governments can manipulate information about casualties because
there are ambiguities built into how we define whose lives matter in wartime.

Read more of Jessica’s article in _[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/11/ukraine-casualties/)_.

---

Published March 8, 2022

## Urban warfare fueled by the West will likely destroy Ukraine’s cities

#### Sending arms is not a panacea — statistics and history show more people will die, more buildings will be leveled, once the fight is joined.

By [Zuri Linetsky](https://egfound.org/about/team/zuri-linetsky/), Research Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/RTS5ULTF-1-1024x683.jpg)

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have mounted an unexpected and capable defense after 
the Russian invasion nearly two weeks ago. Ukrainian forces, alongside [thousands](https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1499315422419734528)
of [volunteer ](https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/making-the-most-of-foreign-volunteers-in-ukraine/)
[foreign fighters](https://www.lawfareblog.com/foreign-fighters-ukraine-evaluating-benefits-and-risks)
have used [American](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040) and
European-supplied weapons [effectively](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html).
Defenders have taken advantage of poor Russian [military](https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/03/five-reasons-why-russia-struggling-ukraine/362636/)
[planning](https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force)
in the first few days of the conflict to destroy and/or capture large numbers of
Russian [military](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/russia-gives-first-count-of-casualties-in-ukraine-war-zL5daZJUoOL2c9JasTAa)
[assets](https://kyivindependent.com/national/russia-faces-heavy-losses-as-it-attacks-ukraine-on-all-fronts/).
Despite this the Russian military controls Europe’s largest nuclear power plant 
in southeastern Ukraine, as well as the southern city of [Kherson](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/kherson-ukraine-russia.html?action=click&pgtype=LegacyCollection&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=hub&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc).

Russian military advances have prompted calls for additional [military aid](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-rushes-arms-to-ukraine-as-russian-forces-escalate-attacks-11646160746)
and support for an [urban](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/28/russia-urban-warfare-ukraine-insurgency-kyiv-kharkiv/)
[insurgency](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-02-25/coming-ukrainian-insurgency)
to fend off Russian sieges of Ukrainian cities. Given the [availability](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6218b8b5ec502b53cd47f95c%26BBC%20reporter%3A%20I%20woke%20up%20at%203am%20and%20my%20family%20home%20had%20been%20bombed%262022-02-25T12%3A42%3A06.146Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:0bd9e95d-d881-4c00-8f51-776312988897&pinned_post_asset_id=6218b8b5ec502b53cd47f95c&pinned_post_type=share)
of weapons in Ukraine, as well as the growing number of [foreign fighters](https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-recruiting-syrians-for-urban-combat-in-ukraine-u-s-officials-say-11646606234)
and [mercenaries](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-mercenaries-helping-Kyiv-fight)
in the conflict — Moscow is now [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-recruiting-syrians-for-urban-combat-in-ukraine-u-s-officials-say-11646606234)
recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukraine — the United States
and its allies must carefully calibrate the military support they provide. [Based](https://www.govconwire.com/2019/10/washington-headquarters-services-announces-four-dsca-assessment-monitoring-support-idiqs/)
on [research](https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/13/this-poll-proves-that-trumps-counterterrorism-strategy-will-fail-africa-nigeria-boko-haram/)
I [conducted](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1900777&download=yes),
more weapons in support of an urban war will advantage Ukrainian defenders but will
lead to a longer more devastating war and have long-term follow-on effects. 

Continuing to supply weapons to Ukrainians defending their cities is an appealing
concept because cities advantage [smaller](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-war-insurgency-arms-urban-asymetrical-11646425997)
and poorly armed [defenders](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002719892054?journalCode=jcrb).
[Cities](https://www.amazon.com/Out-Mountains-Coming-Urban-Guerrilla/dp/0190230967),
with their narrow streets and alleyways, allow defenders to hide in buildings and
create natural hazards for advancing conventional military forces. Improvised explosive
devices ([IEDs](https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2866&context=cisr-journal))
can be buried at street junctions, which slow advancing attackers. Cities limit 
the types and quality of [intelligence](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2019.1672159)
attacking forces can gather about defenders, as well which makes it harder for attacking
forces to fight effectively. Human intelligence is paramount for successful urban
military campaigns. But, in urban wars there is little incentive for residents to
share intelligence. In many cases city residents [support](https://www.jstor.org/stable/3877862)
local defenders. 

Unless attacking military forces want to obliterate a city, they [limit](https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/1595.pdf)
their use of tanks, armored infantry, heavy artillery, and air power. Tight urban
quarters make conventional militaries operate in lighter and [smaller groups](https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/immediate-lessons-from-the-battle-of-mosul),
which increases their vulnerability to attack from shoulder-launched [missiles](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/26/germany-approves-delivery-of-rpgs-from-netherlands-to-ukraine),
[Molotov cocktails](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-molotov-cocktails-russia-tanks-b2025849.html),
and lightly armed [civilians](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-military.html).

Read more of Zuri’s article in [_Responsible Statecraft_](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/08/the-hidden-costs-of-flooding-ukraine-with-weapons/).

---

Published February 28, 2022

## **The US Shouldn’t Interfere While Putin Loses in Ukraine**

#### He has behaved as if he’s blind to the true stakes and likely consequences of the conflict he sought.

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/), Senior Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/RTS5UULY-1-1024x610.jpg)

In his speech announcing the invasion of Ukraine, [Vladimir Putin](https://www.wsj.com/topics/person/vladimir-putin)
referenced the United Nations charter, praised “the high values of human rights 
and freedoms,” and claimed his war represents the only “opportunity to protect Russia
and our people.” This from a man regarded by many American commentators as an archrealist
who makes hardheaded observations about the world as it is and cunningly employs
power to reshape it according to Russia’s interests. In Mike Pompeo’s appraisal,
the Russian president is a “very talented statesman” and “very shrewd.” 

In reality, Mr. Putin’s latest war of aggression is motivated by a toxic mix of 
nostalgia and fantasy that seems likely to prove self-destructive. Mr. Putin has
so far behaved like a man blind to the true stakes and probable consequences of 
this conflict. And the U.S., which is currently recovering from its own bout of 
military overreach, has the opportunity to revive a spirit of clear-eyed pragmatism
that has been absent from major national security decisions in recent decades. If
Mr. Putin’s actions are driven by an exaggerated view of his country’s power—and
its insecurity—President Biden’s response must continue to be informed by a realistic
appraisal of the ways the U.S. can (and can’t) defend its security interests and
help the Ukrainian people.

This might seem like common sense, but not everyone sees it that way. Hillary Clinton
recently called the war in Ukraine a “flash point in a larger global struggle between
democracy and autocracy.” It is tempting to frame conflicts like these as existential
struggles between competing political philosophies. Americans will—and should—always
root for democracy. But reducing complex, distant conflicts to simplistic binaries
obscures the actual grievances and motivations of hostile actors.

The notion that Mr. Putin’s invasion poses a threat not only to Ukrainian sovereignty
but to “global democracy” or freedom itself leads some to propose extraordinary 
responses. Evelyn N. Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense
for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia in the Obama administration, has called for an international
coalition to [enforce](https://twitter.com/EvelynNFarkas/status/1495892708795236356)
a no-fly zone over Ukraine. So far, the Biden administration has prudently ignored
this and other such options, recognizing that America’s interests in Ukraine don’t
justify risking war with a nuclear-armed Russia. Eliot Cohen has [proposed](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-russia-invasion-ukraine-war/621182/)
that the U.S. should arm a hypothetical Ukrainian insurgency—which the Biden administration
has reportedly considered—to raise the costs for Russia and deter other nations 
that might be considering malign activities. But Ukraine is a flat country unsuited
to guerrilla warfare. Backing an insurgency could ignite a wider conflict between
the U.S. and Russia, and increase the violence inflicted on Ukrainian civilians.

Read more of Mark’s article in_ [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-shouldnt-interfere-while-putin-loses-in-ukraine-russia-invasion-military-overreach-security-united-nations-11646085681)_.

---

Published February 14, 2022

## The Great Power of Ukraine

#### Why a hard-won diplomatic victory is so important for the United States

By [Zuri Linetsky](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/), Research Fellow

![](https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/RTS64GMR-1-1024x681.jpg)

The current crisis in Ukraine intensifies a stalemate over European security into
a standoff between three great powers. Russia caused the crisis when it moved an
estimated 130,000 [troops](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/27/world/europe/russia-forces.html)
toward Ukraine’s borders and issued a set of [demands](https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en),
which the US swiftly [rejected](https://www.vox.com/22900113/nato-ukraine-russia-crisis-clinton-expansion).
The US asked China to use its influence with Russia to help facilitate a diplomatic
[solution](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uss-blinken-holds-talks-with-chinas-wang-ukraine-situation-2022-01-27/)
to the standoff. But instead, the Chinese Foreign Minister validated Russian security
[concerns](https://www.ft.com/content/51a61659-8caf-4abc-aca7-4a6808917089) about
NATO’s eastward expansion and encouraged all countries to [deescalate](https://www.ft.com/content/51a61659-8caf-4abc-aca7-4a6808917089)
tensions. Then, at the UN, China rejected the American claim that Russian military
mobilization threatened global security and asserted that the probability of a war
in [Ukraine](https://www.politico.eu/article/us-russia-clash-at-un-security-council-debate-ukraine/)
is exaggerated by the US, deepening its involvement and ties to [Russia](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/world/asia/russia-ukraine-china-putin-xi.html).
What the Biden Administration does next in Ukraine will either increase the likelihood
of war with China or enhance its ability to protect US interests in Asia.

[Concessions](https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-donbas-russia-conflict/)
to Russia in Ukraine could defuse tensions in the long-simmering conflict and signal
to China that the US does not need to rely on force to get what it wants. However,
allowing a limited war in Ukraine to occur may undermine US policy toward Taiwan
and increase the likelihood of a future conflict between the US and China over Taiwan.

[Some](https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/us-must-prepare-war-against-russia-over-ukraine/360639/)
American foreign policy experts think a war in defense of Ukraine is critical to
protect the American-led global [order](https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/02/us-taiwan-defense-china-ukraine-russia/)
and the [credibility](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/16/us/politics/biden-russia-ukraine.html)
of the American security commitment to Taiwan. Others say drawing parallels between
Ukraine and Taiwan is [lazy analysis](https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together/).
They all ignore the fact that China learns from every American military and diplomatic
decision, as Rush Doshi [demonstrated](https://www.brookings.edu/essay/the-long-game-chinas-grand-strategy-to-displace-american-order/).
The United States must focus on what China learns from American choices in this 
Ukrainian crisis, as China’s lessons will inform Sino-American relations in Asia.

Diplomatic concessions in a negotiated resolution to the Ukrainian standoff would
reinforce American commitments to Asia in several ways. First, China uses the threat
of military force [cautiously](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10670564.2019.1677363?journalCode=cjcc20)
to achieve its interests, and uses diplomacy and economic inducements at least as
[often](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10670564.2019.1677363) as coercion.
Concessions therefore bolster the [Biden](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/reputation-for-resolve-how-leaders-signal-determination-in-international-politics-by-danielle-l-lupton-ithaca-ny-cornell-university-press-2020-249p-4995-cloth/8820F0A5330C7FB8C35DF9B648EFCAAB)
Administration’s [reputation](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03050629.2017.1316268)
with China for effective diplomacy. Second, China evaluates the credibility of US
commitments in [Asia](https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/44/1/117/12241/Cautious-Bully-Reputation-Resolve-and-Beijing-s)
by what America says and does. American [diplomacy](http://graphics.wsj.com/hillary-clinton-email-documents/pdfs/C05772790.pdf)
in previous disputes in the South China Sea — like the Scarborough Shoal [standoff](https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/learning-the-lessons-scarborough-reef-9442?page=0%2C1)—
prevented China from using [force](https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/44/1/117/12241/Cautious-Bully-Reputation-Resolve-and-Beijing-s).
Diplomacy in Ukraine would help China see that the US does not prefer conflict and
restore some value to American strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan.

Read more of Zuri’s article in _[Inkstick](https://inkstickmedia.com/the-great-power-of-ukraine/)._

---

**VIDEO**

---

Premiered April 7, 2022

## **Germany’s Identity Crisis: European Security After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine**

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a sudden shift in German defense policy.
After years of resisting pleas by the US to take more responsibility for Europe’s
defense, Germany hiked military spending and declared its intention to wean itself
off its dependence on Russian energy. As Western Europe’s most powerful country,
with influence felt throughout the continent, Germany’s reversal could have sweeping
ramifications for the future of European security and the North Atlantic Treaty 
Organization

German national security experts [Liana Fix](https://twitter.com/LianaFix), [Andreas Kluth](https://twitter.com/andreaskluth),
and [Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook](https://twitter.com/Cluverc) discuss this about-face.
Protected by America’s security umbrella, Germany, they argue, had come to view 
power politics as a thing of the past, and accommodation as the way to address Russia’s
malign behavior. Now awakened to Europe’s geopolitical realities, Germany will have
to reimagine a more active role in European security.

---

**MODELING DEMOCRACY**

---

Aired June 16, 2022

## **EGF Debuts New International Survey on MSNBC’s Morning Joe Program**

IGA senior fellow [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/) shared
top-line findings of the report, “[Democracy’s Promise: International Views of America in the Biden Era](https://egfound.org/2022/06/modeling-democracy-democracys-promise/#full-report),”
on a June 16, 2022, segment of MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Mark discussed how survey takers
in nine countries view American democracy, the Biden administration’s response to
Russia’s war in Ukraine, America’s decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan,
and more.

Read the full report [here](https://egfound.org/2022/06/modeling-democracy-democracys-promise/#full-report).

---