# NATO at 75: What’s Its Future?

- Link: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2024/06/nato-at-75-whats-its-future/
- Published: 2024-06-10T01:46:14-04:00

### Just past its 75th anniversary, what does the future hold for the alliance?

By [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/) and [Olivia Chilkoti](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/about/team/lucas-robinson/)

_This contribution appeared in the June 10, 2024 edition of “[Adults in a Room](https://inkstickmedia.com/nato-at-75-whats-its-future/),”
a series from _The Stimson Center’s Reimagining Grand Strategy program _and_ Inkstick
Media_. _

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Russia’s war on Ukraine has divided Ukraine’s supporters as to the true stakes of
the conflict and best course of action for their countries. We at the Institute 
for Global Affairs polled 3,360 people in the US, UK, Germany, and France (to which
we refer collectively, if imprecisely, below as Western Europe) on national security
and geopolitical challenges. [Our survey](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2024/06/modeling-democracy-the-new-atlanticism/#full-report)
reveals strong transatlantic support for urging a negotiated settlement to the conflict
and a notable desire among European respondents for greater self-reliance in defense.
As Europe grapples with the balance of responsibility, the US’s traditional role
as the primary guarantor of European security is being reconsidered — signaling 
potential shifts in NATO dynamics and international diplomacy.

Sizable majorities in the US and Western Europe want NATO countries to push for 
a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. A plurality of respondents on both sides of 
the Atlantic believe the war must end due to the loss of life and casualties. This
pragmatic view contrasts with the notion, common in the US press, of Europeans’ 
romantic hope for a total victory. 

Despite any anxiety over the war, European perspectives on defense may be shifting.
Majorities think Europe should be “primarily responsible for its own defense while
aiming to preserve the NATO alliance.” Western Europeans are half as likely as Americans
to believe the US should be primarily responsible for defending Europe. The desire
to take more responsibility reflects a realistic assessment of the geopolitical 
landscape and Europe’s direct stakes in the conflict: while American aid to Ukraine
dominates headlines and internal debate, Europeans bear substantial costs, providing
for a flood of refugees, and [footing the bill for the bulk of humanitarian aid](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-states-america/eu-assistance-ukraine-us-dollars_en?s=253)
even as they brace for potential escalation.

Nearly three times as many Western Europeans want a “neutral relationship” with 
the US as want the US to take primary responsibility for their defense. This view
is most prominent in France, likely driven by President Emmanuel Macron’s call for“
strategic autonomy,” comfort with the EU as a cultural, economic, and security bloc,
or a sense that — with Donald Trump as the presumptive Republican nominee — the 
US is an increasingly capricious security partner. Only 6% of Western Europeans 
see the US as a “very reliable” guarantor of European security over the next decade.
Two and a half times as many Western Europeans want the US to decrease or withdraw
its troops from Europe as want it to increase its presence. Although a plurality
prefers the status quo and Americans are more optimistic, Europeans’ desire for 
greater military self-sufficiency may signal a return to the dynamics of previous
eras when Europe relied more on intra-European relationships than protection from
a superpower an ocean away.

---

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**Written by [Mark Hannah](https://egfound.org/about/team/mark-hannah/)**

Mark is a senior fellow with the Independent America project at the Institute for
Global Affairs and host of the podcast, _[None Of The Above](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/projects/iga-podcast-none-of-the-above/)_.

 * [Twitter](https://twitter.com/ProfessorHannah)
 * [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/markhannah/)

[⌊Olivia Chilkoti.⌉⌊Olivia Chilkoti.⌉[

**Written by [Olivia Chilkoti](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/about/team/olivia-chilkoti/)**

Olivia is a researcher with the Institute for Global Affairs and producer of the
podcast, _[None Of The Above](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/projects/iga-podcast-none-of-the-above/)_.

 * [Twitter](https://x.com/ochilkoti?lang=en)
 * [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/olivia-chilkoti/)