# 6 things to expect from Trump’s first month of foreign policy - Link: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2025/01/6-things-to-expect-from-trumps-first-month-of-foreign-policy/ - Published: 2025-01-23T04:58:17-05:00 - Author: wpengine By [Ransom Miller](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/about/team/ransom-miller/), Research Associate _This article appeared in_ [The Hill](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5100274-trump-foreign-policy-priorities-first-month/) _on January 23, 202_5 --- [Donald Trump ](https://thehill.com/people/donald-trump/)made himself a force in US foreign policy before even being sworn in. He’s [already claimed a foreign policy victory](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113833531533520804) with an advisor flying to Qatar and successfully negotiating an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, sidelining Biden administration officials.  Based on what he has said since the election, here is a list of what might happen in Trump’s first month in command of US foreign policy. 1. **Aid to Ukraine will continue for some time: **Trump promised to end the Russia- Ukraine war on his first day in office, but he recently expanded the timeline for a ceasefire to [six months](https://www.ft.com/content/989dc02e-2a13-4c21-8ad0-0b32e098c410). Despite his misgivings, Trump has also been less critical of Zelensky since being elected. Russia [continues to make battlefield gains](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/warring-sides-battle-russia-moscow-reports-gains-ukraine-rcna186340) while Biden has poured more military aid to Ukraine on his way out the door. Fully [$4 billion in foreign aid](https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/4024947/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-press-briefing/) remains unspent. While it’s unlikely that Trump will allow Ukraine to fire long- range missiles into Russian territory, he might float the earmarked aid to Ukraine in the hopes of securing better ceasefire terms with Russia later in the year. 2. **Tariffs levied against U.S. neighbors first**: It would be difficult for Trump to reform U.S. trade policy overnight, but there are some changes that he can make from day one. Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, Congress grants the president authority to use tariffs to [address “unusual and extraordinary” peacetime threats](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-could-impose-tariffs-on-day-one-with-few-checks-on-that-power/). It might be difficult to justify a global tariff system under that mandate — but Trump previously [invoked the act in 2019](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-regarding-emergency-measures-address-border-crisis/) when he threatened to levy tariffs against Mexico for failing to halt illegal immigration to the U.S. Recently, Trump has threatened Mexico and Canada with tariffs unless they enact policies to better police their borders. Trump could put those tariffs into action in his first month in office if he’s not pleased with the response from US neighbors. … _Read more of Ransom’s article in _[The Hill](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5100274-trump-foreign-policy-priorities-first-month/) --- [[ **Written by [Ransom Miller](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/about/team/ransom-miller/)** Ransom Miller is a research associate at the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group. * [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/ransom-miller-98b738226/) ### **More from 󠀁[Ransom](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-author/lucas-robinson/)󠁿** [⌊A hand-painted American flag reading "God Bless America" in an ornate frame, propped among empty gilded frames in a gallery window.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/09/war-president-iran-trap-spring-us-poll/) [Public Opinion](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/public-opinion/) ### 󠀁[WAR PRESIDENT: THE IRAN TRAP](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/09/war-president-iran-trap-spring-us-poll/)󠁿 [⌊A view shows a microphone next to the Presidential seal on the roof of the Oval Office, during a press conference with US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, at the White House in Washington, DC, US, May 30, 2025.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/09/war-president-iran-trap-info-spring-us-poll/) [Public Opinion](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/public-opinion/) ### 󠀁[Information War](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/09/war-president-iran-trap-info-spring-us-poll/)󠁿 [⌊US President Donald Trump looks on as he meets with Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa (not pictured), in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 16, 2025.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/09/war-president-iran-trap-fatigue-spring-us-poll/) [Public Opinion](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/public-opinion/) ### 󠀁[War Fatigue](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/09/war-president-iran-trap-fatigue-spring-us-poll/)󠁿 [⌊A US Marine gives hand and arm signals to a Light Armored Vehicle in Norway.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/07/does-the-security-assistance-the-us-provides-really-work/) [Diplomacy](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/diplomacy/) ### 󠀁[Does the Security Assistance the US Provides Really Work?](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/07/does-the-security-assistance-the-us-provides-really-work/)󠁿 [](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/poll-war-president/) [Public Opinion](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/public-opinion/) ### 󠀁[WAR PRESIDENT](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/poll-war-president/)󠁿 [⌊A man watches footage of a drone.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/04/the-film-school-grad-on-ukraines-front-line/) [Conflict & War](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/conflict-war/) ### 󠀁[The Film School Grad on Ukraine’s Front Line](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/04/the-film-school-grad-on-ukraines-front-line/)󠁿 [⌊President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stand at a podium together, as Takaichi waves.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/01/trump-continues-american-dominance-in-the-asia-pacific/) [Diplomacy](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/diplomacy/) ### 󠀁[Trump continues American dominance in the Asia-Pacific](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/01/trump-continues-american-dominance-in-the-asia-pacific/)󠁿 [⌊President Trump faces towards the flashing lights of the White House Press Pool cameras while holding an umbrella.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/01/trumps-china-cacophony-not-music-to-american-ears/) [Public Opinion](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/public-opinion/) ### 󠀁[Trump’s China cacophony not music to American ears](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/01/trumps-china-cacophony-not-music-to-american-ears/)󠁿 [⌊Chinese President Xi Jinping sits with his aides amid a meeting with US President Donald Trump.⌉](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2025/11/the-next-maga-divide-is-china/) [Politics & Government](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/by-subject/politics-government/) ### 󠀁[The next MAGA divide is China](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2025/11/the-next-maga-divide-is-china/)󠁿