# Shifting Views of Israel

- Link: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/
- Published: 2026-05-19T09:08:12-04:00

American support for Israel is fraying. Many Americans — particularly younger people
and Democrats, but a meaningful share of Republicans as well — question the US-Israel
relationship and see it as a moral hazard, entangling the United States in conflicts
it might otherwise avoid.

Key Findings

**A significant share of Americans sees Israel as a liability.** gen half (45%) 
say the relationship does more to hurt US interests than to help, including 67 percent
of Democrats and 47 percent of independents. Among Republicans, fewer than half (
44%) say the relationship helps.

**Americans want the arms relationship constrained or ended. **Just 16 percent say
the United States should keep supplying Israel with weapons without new restrictions.
Thirty-eight percent want to stop supplying weapons entirely, and another 24 percent
want weapons conditioned on how they’re used. Among Republicans, 35 percent back
unrestricted supply — 29 percent want conditions and 18 percent want to halt supply
entirely.

**Americans don’t see Israel as worth a war.** Just 17 percent say defending Israel
from attacks justifies US military action against Iran — including only 9 percent
of those under 30 and 6 percent of Democrats. And nearly a quarter (24 percent) 
of Americans say Israel itself is most responsible for the war with Iran.

In the weeks preceding the war with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
visited the White House to make a hard sell to President Trump on regime change.
This reportedly played a large role in convincing Trump to take the United States
to war.^([1](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/#e3a7c205-b89d-4d32-824c-b020bea64689))
Government officials justified strikes against Iran by claiming Tehran was refusing
to negotiate on its nuclear program, despite being engaged in active diplomacy at
the time, and that they were liberating the Iranian people from an oppressive regime.

We wanted to get a sense of which country Americans think bears the most responsibility
for the current war.

## A plurality of Americans blame the United States most for the war with Iran — narrowly ahead of Iran and Israel.

Overall, Americans consider the United States most responsible for the current war
with Iran, including nearly half of Democrats. About one third of Democrats think
Israel is most responsible. Meanwhile, a majority (58%) of Republicans think Iran
bears the most responsibility, suggesting they largely believe the administration’s
narrative that Iran refused to negotiate in good faith on the question of its nuclear
program and posed a serious threat to US interests.

Independents were about evenly split, though a plurality (26%) assign responsibility
to Israel. They reflect the general breakdown across the entire population. This—
and the 17% who are not sure — could indicate muddled messaging from the administration
and a lack of clarity among the American public on why this war began in the first
place.

## Gen Z Americans are the most likely to blame the United States for the war.

Gen Z survey takers (adults aged 18-29) are less likely to blame Iran (18%), compared
with 31% of Americans aged 45-64 and 40% of Americans aged 65 or older. About one
quarter of Gen Z say they’re not sure which country is most responsible. This may
be due to younger people not following geopolitical news as closely as older Americans,
or an indication that long-held assumptions about these countries are being challenged.

Given Israel’s outsized role in advocating for regime change in Iran, in addition
to its existing military campaigns across the Middle East, we asked Americans whether
the relationship with Israel does more to help or hurt US interests.

## A majority of Democrats, nearly half of Independents, and one in five Republicans think the US relationship with Israel does more to hurt than help US interests.

Nearly half of Americans consider the relationship with Israel a net negative for
US interests, including most Democrats (67%) and nearly half of Independents (47%).
Even though Republicans are very unlikely to blame Israel for the war with Iran,
fewer than half (44%) think the relationship with Israel does more to help US interests.
This could partly stem from an increasing number of voices on the right who criticize
Israel for involving the United States in unnecessary Middle East conflicts, notably
rightwing media personality Tucker Carlson and publications like _The American Conservative_.

As our data shows, the US-Israel relationship has come under increasing scrutiny.
Many Americans believe Israel has committed genocide against the Palestinian people
and have become skeptical of US military aid to the country, which amounts to at
least $21.7 billion since October 7, 2023.^([2](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/#7f0c77f5-1d92-495a-9e15-50915e54f2c4))
Most of Israel’s weapons inventory is supplied by the United States, including but
not limited to combat aircraft, transport helicopters, bombs, missiles, and advanced
targeting systems.

IGA’s polling from fall 2025 found that about one third of Americans think Israel’s
operations in Gaza amount to genocide, including half of Democrats (51%) and nearly
half of Gen Z (44%). At that time, roughly a third of Americans said the US should
stop supporting Israel’s military campaign.^([3](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/#b7f0ffc2-c97c-4d65-9142-8a2783420395))
This time, we asked specifically about arms supplies to Israel.

## A plurality of Americans think the United States should stop supplying weapons to Israel.

More than one third of Americans, including more than half of Democrats, think the
US should stop supplying weapons to Israel altogether. About one quarter of Americans
think the US should continue supplying weapons to Israel but place conditions on
how they can be used. Only 16% of Americans think the US should continue supplying
weapons to Israel without new restrictions, largely driven by 35% of Republicans
who think this.

## Only eight percent of Gen Z Americans supported unrestricted arms supplies to Israel.

The generational divide is also noteworthy — only 7% of adults aged 18-29 think 
the US should supply weapons to Israel unconditionally. These findings suggest the
US relationship with Israel is contentious as ever in the wake of the Iran war, 
attacks against Lebanon, and settler violence in the West Bank.

Endnotes

 1. Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. “How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran.” 
    _The New York Times_, April 7, 2026. [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html).
    [↩︎](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/#e3a7c205-b89d-4d32-824c-b020bea64689-link)
 2. William D. Hartung. “US Military Aid and Arms Transfers to Israel, October 2023–
    September 2025.” Costs of War, Brown University, October 7, 2025. [https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/AidToIsrae](https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/AidToIsrael).
    [↩︎](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/#7f0c77f5-1d92-495a-9e15-50915e54f2c4-link)
 3. Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Eloise Cassier, and Ransom Miller. “Reckless Peacemaker?
    How Americans See Trump’s Foreign Policy.” Institute for Global Affairs, November
    6, 2025.[ https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2025/11/reckless-peacemaker-american-views-trump-foreign-policy/](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2025/11/reckless-peacemaker-american-views-trump-foreign-policy/)
    [↩︎](https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2026/05/war-president-israel/#b7f0ffc2-c97c-4d65-9142-8a2783420395-link)