6 things to expect from Trump’s first month of foreign policy

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Donald Trump made himself a force in US foreign policy before even being sworn in. He’s already claimed a foreign policy victory with an advisor flying to Qatar and successfully negotiating an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, sidelining Biden administration officials. 

Based on what he has said since the election, here is a list of what might happen in Trump’s first month in command of US foreign policy.

1. Aid to Ukraine will continue for some time: Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, but he recently expanded the timeline for a ceasefire to six months. Despite his misgivings, Trump has also been less critical of Zelensky since being elected. Russia continues to make battlefield gains while Biden has poured more military aid to Ukraine on his way out the door. Fully $4 billion in foreign aid remains unspent. While it’s unlikely that Trump will allow Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russian territory, he might float the earmarked aid to Ukraine in the hopes of securing better ceasefire terms with Russia later in the year.
2. Tariffs levied against U.S. neighbors first: It would be difficult for Trump to reform U.S. trade policy overnight, but there are some changes that he can make from day one. Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, Congress grants the president authority to use tariffs to address “unusual and extraordinary” peacetime threats. It might be difficult to justify a global tariff system under that mandate — but Trump previously invoked the act in 2019 when he threatened to levy tariffs against Mexico for failing to halt illegal immigration to the U.S. Recently, Trump has threatened Mexico and Canada with tariffs unless they enact policies to better police their borders. Trump could put those tariffs into action in his first month in office if he’s not pleased with the response from US neighbors.

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