New Poll: East Asian Perspectives on Escalating US-China Tensions

Eurasia Group Foundation’s Survey of South Koreans, Singaporeans, and Filipinos examines countries caught in the middle of escalating US and China tensions.

NEW YORK, June 13, 2023 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ —  As tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate, the two great powers’ competition has compounded and caught many countries in the middle. The Eurasia Group Foundation has released a new public opinion poll of people from Singapore, South Korea, and the Philippines, three countries which have significant historical, economic, and diplomatic ties with both the US and China.

EGF’s survey reveals the complex relationship many in East Asia have with the two powers and presents a new path that avoids a zero-sum mindset of competition versus cooperation to serve the interests of both the US and the region more broadly.

Top takeaways include:

• Widespread concern over US–China tensions: Roughly 90% of respondents are worried or very worried about a geopolitical confrontation between the US and China.
• Ramped up US—China rivalry sparks security concerns: Most think the consequences of more intense US-China competition will be negative: 62% think their country’s “national security will be put at risk” (at 81%, Filipinos most anticipate this) and 57% think their country’s “politics will intensify as political parties pick sides in the US-China rivalry” (at 70%, South Koreans most anticipate this).

“Our data shows countries caught in the middle performing an intricate dance—navigating their alliances, economic concerns, and the influence of these two great powers. All leaders must master this choreography.”

Zachary Karabell, Eurasia Group Foundation board chairman

• Many have favorable views of both countries: Most people with favorable views of China also have positive views of the US government as well as America’s culture and influence in Asia. About a third (31%) have positive views of both Chinese and American soft power.
• But the US is viewed more favorably than China in general: More than twice as many respondents have a favorable view of the US (70%) than of China (34%).
• Alliances matter when it comes to support for US intervention in Asia: Asked about a hypothetical scenario where a nondemocratic country attacks a democratic country in Asia, there was majority support within each of the three countries for the US deploying its military to stop the invasion. Among those told the invaded country had an alliance with the US, compared with those who were told it did not, support for a US military response was 5% higher and doubt of US leadership in the case of nonintervention was 8% higher.

Many have favorable views of both countries: Most people with favorable views of China also have positive views of the US government as well as America’s culture and influence in Asia. About a third (31%) have positive views of both Chinese and American soft power.

But the US is viewed more favorably than China in general: More than twice as many respondents have a favorable view of the US (70%) than of China (34%).

Alliances matter when it comes to support for US intervention in Asia: Asked about a hypothetical scenario where a nondemocratic country attacks a democratic country in Asia, there was majority support within each of the three countries for the US deploying its military to stop the invasion. Among those told the invaded country had an alliance with the US, compared with those who were told it did not, support for a US military response was 5% higher and doubt of US leadership in the case of nonintervention was 8% higher.

“Tension between the two giants is reshaping the global order,” said Zachary Karabell, Board Chairman of the Eurasia Group Foundation. “Our data shows countries caught in the middle performing an intricate dance—navigating their alliances, economic concerns, and the influence of these two great powers. All leaders must master this choreography. Countries in the region will have to hedge while leaders in Washington and Beijing settle on the right mix of competition and cooperation, and those hedging strategies will be partly informed by the publics’ views quantified here.”

The Eurasia Group Foundation’s 2023 survey, “Caught in the Middle: Views of US–China Competition Across Asia,” was developed and commissioned by EGF. The survey was distributed online by YouGov, a large, commercial survey company to a sample of 1,500 adults in Singapore, Philippines, and South Korea—500 respondents in each country—between April 25 and May 8, 2023. The survey is nationally representative in Singapore and South Korea and representative of the online population in the Philippines.

The report can be found online here. For more information, please contact media@egfound.org

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This press release includes references to the Eurasia Group Foundation, now known as the Eurasia Group Institute for Global Affairs.