Western Europeans Are Hedging on a Post-US NATO

A recent survey of NATO’s four biggest members finds that Western Europe’s scramble to arm itself is riddled with contradictions.

This article appeared in Lawfare on June 20, 2025

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As NATO convenes its annual summit this week, Europe will be working hard to present a united front with the United States. Allies are building their military capabilities, and leaders such as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz back U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, even as they caution against the risks of broader escalation. But underneath the surface, political divisions and America’s faltering commitment to Europe continue to fracture the alliance.

In some ways, the alliance will appear to be exactly what then-President Biden declared it to be at last year’s meeting: “stronger than it’s ever been in its history.” At least, materially. Following decades of sclerotic defense spending despite prodding by US officials, governments in the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, and most other NATO members will arrive at The Hague with ambitious plans to modernize their armed forces. The alliance has even agreed to raise the defense spending target that it sets for its members from 2 to 5 percent of their gross domestic product—a sharp increase per the demand of President Trump.

Yet burgeoning defense budgets are only part of the story. All is not well within the 76-year-old alliance. NATO’s renewed appreciation for hard power owes less to Biden, the president who trumpeted the sanctity of America’s alliance commitments, than to Trump, the president who threatens to abandon them to contend with a revanchist Russia by themselves. Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin inadvertently strengthened the alliance’s resolve, so too has Trump.

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Read more of Lucas’s article in Lawfare

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