WAR PRESIDENT / IRAN
Tracking American Public Attitudes
Americans disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the war with Iran, don’t think it’s making the United States any better off, and are pessimistic about its chances of success. They are reluctant to put ground troops at risk, troubled by moves that would increase Iranian civilian casualties, and connect the war to higher costs of living. Americans blame Washington as much as Tehran for the conflict — and many say the war affects their vote.
1. Only Republicans are sold on the war. Seventy-three percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the war, 55 percent say Iran is now less likely to acquire a nuclear weapon than a year ago, and 55 percent say operations have made the United States safer. Those figures fall to 23 percent, 26 percent, and 14 percent among independents — and 5 percent, 24 percent, and 5 percent among Democrats.
2. Americans don’t want to escalate. Sixty-two percent oppose a US ground invasion of Iran. Fifty-five percent say striking electricity, fuel, or water systems used mostly by civilians would be morally unacceptable. And forty-nine percent say operations against Iran have made the United States less safe.
3. Americans blame Washington as much as Tehran — and the war is moving voters. Roughly equal shares of Americans say the United States (30%) and Iran (28%) are most responsible for the war. And 56 percent say the war affects who they support in elections at least somewhat — including 71 percent of Democrats, 49 percent of independents, and 45 percent of Republicans.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. The initial offensive killed much of Iran’s senior leadership but failed to collapse the regime. In retaliation, Iran targeted US bases across the Middle East, attacked allies in the Persian Gulf, and closed the Strait of Hormuz.
In the months since, the Trump administration has told different stories about the war. It remains unclear whether it was started to prevent Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon, destroy the regime, or preempt an Israeli attack. As of writing, a tenuous ceasefire holds, even as the president orders new strikes against Iranian military bases which he incongruously refers to as “love taps.”
The conflict’s human toll has been immense. More than 5,000 people have been killed across the Middle East, the vast majority in Iran and Lebanon. In the early hours of the war, a US Tomahawk missile struck an Iranian school, instantly killing 156 people, most of them elementary-school-aged children. Thirteen US servicemembers have been killed, with many US bases rendered uninhabitable by Iranian airstrikes. There are significant risks of the conflict expanding, including from the president himself. On April 7, Trump posted, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
The war’s most prominent impact on American life has been the rising cost of energy. Iran’s military advantages in the Strait of Hormuz have enabled it to easily close off civilian traffic. In the United States, that’s meant gas prices have hit their highest point since the summer of 2022 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
President Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped since the war began. We asked Americans to evaluate his administration’s management of the conflict so far.
Americans broadly disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the war — only Republicans approve.
A majority of Americans disapprove of how President Trump has handled the US military campaign against Iran, including nearly half (45%) who strongly disapprove. A large majority (79%) of Democrats and plurality (45%) of Independents strongly disapprove. In contrast, most Republicans approve of how Trump has handled the war, including about half who strongly approve.
It is important to note that this data reflects sentiment on Trump’s handling of the conflict rather than the decision to go to war against Iran. There are a number of Iran hawks, like former National Security Advisor John Bolton, who are supportive of targeting Iran but disapprove of the administration’s execution. These critics may take issue with the failure to loop in US allies, Trump’s rhetoric about the war on social media, or a lack of coherent messaging to the American public.
We asked Americans about a variety of purported goals justifying US military action against Iran. About one third think none of the stated goals justify attacking Iran, including a majority (58%) of Democrats.
Majorities of Republicans cited preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear program (73%), protecting the United States from attacks (65%), and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open (57%) as justifications for war. Weakening Iran’s government and protecting Israel from attacks were relatively unpopular goals overall.
About half of Americans (49%) think military operations against Iran are making the United States less safe and about a quarter consider they are making the US safer. A large majority (78%) of Democrats and a plurality of Independents (47%) think the United States is less safe because of the war. A slight majority (55%) of Republicans think it is making the United States safer, while 20% of both Republicans and Independents think it is not making a difference.
Republicans are much more likely to think the war is necessary to eliminate the risk of Iran building a nuclear weapon and to protect the United States from attacks. This is also reflected in responses to our question about Iran war goals — and could help explain why most think the United States is safer as a result of preemptive military strikes.
The contrast between Gen Z and older generations on this question is notable. Only 15% of Gen Z (adults aged 18-29) think military operations against Iran are increasing US safety, compared with 29% of Americans aged 45-64 and 36% of Americans aged 65 and older. Overall, Gen Z is less likely to have a strong stance, with about one quarter (24%) saying the war makes no difference and 16% being unsure.
The administration’s primary justification for both the current military operations and the strikes against Iran in June 2025 has been the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. We surveyed Americans on the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear weapon today compared to one year ago.
A plurality of Americans think Iran is more likely to develop a nuclear weapon today than one year ago.
Overall, 43% of Americans think Iran is more likely to develop a nuclear weapon today and 35% think it is less likely. Partisan divides on this question are not quite as stark. A slight majority (55%) of Democrats think it is more likely and a slight majority (55%) of Republicans think it is less likely, and Independents fall somewhere in the middle.
While Democrats and Republicans are not as split on the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, they likely have diverging views on what this means for the United States. Based on our findings, Democrats may be more likely to conclude that diplomacy through negotiations is the best way to address the nuclear question, while Republicans may conclude that it makes US military action even more imperative.
The administration’s primary justification for both the current military operations and the strikes against Iran in June 2025 has been the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. We surveyed Americans on the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear weapon today compared to one year ago.
Most Americans say it’s gotten harder to pay for necessities in the past 6 months (62%), including the vast majority of Democrats (78%) and a majority of Independents (61%).
Republicans are more evenly divided, although nearly half say it’s gotten harder (46%), many say there’s been no change (41%), and few say that it’s gotten easier (11%).
Among Americans more broadly, even fewer say that it’s gotten easier to pay for basic necessities (6%). Roughly a quarter of Americans say it’s no different than before (26%).
The vast majority of Americans say that the Iran war has affected the cost of living at least some (79%), including most Republicans (70%). Democrats (90%) and independents (78%) say the same thing in even greater numbers.
Nearly half of Americans say that the Iran war has affected the cost of living a great deal (45%). Half of independents (47%) and a majority of Democrats (63%) agree. A quarter of Republicans say the same (24%).
Another quarter of Republicans say the war has had not much or any impact on the cost of living (24%). Few Democrats (5%) or independents (7%) say the same.
Most Americans oppose a ground invasion of Iran by US forces (62%). That includes the vast majority of Democrats (85%) and most independents (54%).
Republicans are evenly split between opposition (41%) and support (39%) for a US ground invasion of Iran. Support for a ground invasion is weak among independents (14%) and Democrats (4%).
Most Americans oppose a ground invasion of Iran by US forces (62%). That includes the vast majority of Democrats (85%) and most independents (54%).
Republicans are evenly split between opposition (41%) and support (39%) for a US ground invasion of Iran. Support for a ground invasion is weak among independents (14%) and Democrats (4%).
A fifth of Americans are unsure whether they support or oppose a ground invasion (20%). That includes a third of independents (32%), a fifth of Republicans (20%), and few Democrats (11%).
A majority of Americans find it unacceptable to strike civilian infrastructure (55%). That includes the vast majority of Democrats (82%), half of independents (49%), and less than a third of Republicans (29%).
Half of Republicans think it’s acceptable to target civilian infrastructure (51%). A fifth of independents (20%) and a few Democrats agree (7%).
A fifth of Americans are unsure (20%), particularly driven by Independents, among whom roughly a third are not sure (31%).
Trump Is Waging One Big War Against the Rest of the World