Heading Into the Midterms, Americans Chose Prices Over the War, More Than Two to One

The president’s war on Iran went to the voters, and Americans chose lower prices over military goals by more than two to one. In a three-question poll fielded on the eve of the midterm election, we also asked what role Congress should play in ending the war and whether a candidate’s support for the war moves voters. A majority says Congress, not the president, should decide when it ends, and more than two in five say they’d be less likely to vote for a candidate who backs the war.

These pre-election numbers come from a YouGov survey of 1,000 US adults (18+), fielded October 29 to November 2, 2026, on behalf of the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group. Results are weighted to be representative of the US adult population. Margin of error ±3.4 percentage points. Full question wording, crosstabs, and methodology are available. The next installment of our War President survey series follows in December.

By More Than Three to One, Americans Say They Are Less Likely, Not More Likely, to Vote for a Candidate Who Supports the Iran War

In the final days before the election, we asked whether a candidate’s support for the war would make Americans more or less likely to vote for that candidate. More than three times as many say less likely (44%) as more likely (13%), a 31-point gap. About a quarter (26%) say it would not make much difference, and 16% are not sure.

The war was on voters’ minds well before Election Day. In April, 56% of Americans said the war with Iran affects who they support in elections, including 35% who said it does so a great deal. The two questions aren’t directly comparable, but both point the same way. Exit polling tells a similar story: the war mattered to many voters, though fewer rated it as crucial to their vote than the cost of living or government corruption, according to an ABC News Voter Poll. Vice President JD Vance blamed the war for his party’s losses.

Support for the war is a drag with Democrats and, to a lesser degree, Independents. Three-quarters of Democrats (76%) say a candidate’s support for the war would make them less likely to vote for that candidate. Just 3% say more likely, and 13% say it would not make much difference. Independents lean the same way but less decisively: 43% say less likely and 5% say more likely. Another 30% say it would not make much difference, and about one in five (22%) are not sure.

Only among Republicans was support for the war a lift rather than a drag. Thirty-two percent say it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, compared with 13% who say less likely. Even so, a plurality of Republicans (40%) say it would not make much difference.

More Than Twice as Many Americans Would Rather Hold Down Prices Than Meet Military Goals in Iran

More than twice as many Americans say the United States should prioritize avoiding higher prices at home, even if its military goals in Iran are not fully met (56%), as say it should prioritize those goals, even if prices rise (22%).

Faced with this tradeoff, four in five Democrats (81%) and a majority of Independents (57%) prioritize avoiding higher prices, while just 4% and 12%, respectively, prioritize achieving military goals in Iran. Republicans are more divided: Half (50%) prioritize military goals, while about a third (32%) prioritize avoiding higher prices.

Prices were already the war’s most widely felt cost. Observers have argued that voters directly linked the war to their pocketbooks. In our August survey, 81% of Americans said the war had raised the cost of living at least some, including 73% of Republicans.

A Majority Says Congress, Not the President, Should Decide When the War Ends

Congress has voted repeatedly on measures to halt or curb the war on Iran, drawing support from a small group of Republican lawmakers. The incoming Democratic majority is strategizing ways to use its new power to constrain the president’s ability to continue the conflict. Earlier in the war, our spring survey found that 61% of Americans said the president should not be able to order military action without approval from Congress. In our latest survey, with the war still underway, we asked a different question: who should have the final say in deciding when to end US military action against Iran? A majority (53%) say Congress, 29% say President Trump, and 18% are not sure.

More than four in five Democrats (84%) and a majority of Independents (55%) say Congress should have the final say. Republicans are the only partisan group in which a majority (60%) says President Trump should have that authority.

Methodology

This poll was commissioned by the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group and conducted online by YouGov from October 29 to November 2, 2026, ahead of the November 3 midterms. YouGov interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults in the United States drawn from its opt-in panel, matched and weighted on gender, age, race, education, region, home ownership, and 2024 presidential vote choice using benchmarks from the US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and the 2024 AP VoteCast exit poll.

The full-sample margin of error is ±3.4 percentage points (adjusted for weighting) and is larger for subgroups; figures are rounded and may not sum to 100. Democrats (n=386) and Republicans (n=355) include Independents who lean toward each party, while Independents (n=207) lean toward neither. Earlier findings come from separate IGA–YouGov surveys of 1,000 US adults fielded April 24–27 and August 11–14, 2026. Full methodology, question wording, and crosstabs are available.